D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 55 milyar dolarla 2009’dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye gerilerken, alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f d\u0131\u015f ticaretteki iyile\u015fmeyi desteklemeye devam etti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu (T\u00dc\u0130K) ile Ticaret Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015f birli\u011fiyle olu\u015fturulan 2018 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin ge\u00e7ici d\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerine g\u00f6re, ihracat ge\u00e7en y\u0131l, 2017’ye k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 7 artarak 168 milyar 23 milyon dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ithalat y\u00fczde 4,6 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 223 milyar 39 milyon dolara indi. B\u00f6ylece d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 28,4 azalarak 55 milyar 16 milyon dolara geriledi. Bu rakam 2009’dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck rakama i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131ndaki normalle\u015fme desteklerken, enerji kalemindeki geli\u015fmeler \u00f6nemini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Konuya ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelerde bulunan AA Finans Analisti ve ekonomist Haluk B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini enerji grubunun olumsuz etkiledi\u011fini, enerji ve alt\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ise sert geriledi\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n ihracat\u0131n\u0131n aral\u0131kta 115 milyon dolarla ge\u00e7en y\u0131la benzer ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fine i\u015faret eden B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i,
“Bu d\u00f6nemde alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131 543 milyon dolar oldu. B\u00f6ylece, alt\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticareti dengesi 2017’de verilen 10 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re bu y\u0131l 8,6 milyar dolarla iyile\u015fme kaydetti. Enerji ithalat\u0131 ise art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi korurken, bu ay \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re enerji ithalat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f 0,1 milyar dolar oldu. B\u00f6ylece son 12 ayl\u0131k enerji ithalat\u0131 43 milyar dolara y\u00fckselmi\u015f oldu. Enerji ve alt\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k da 6 ayd\u0131r \u00fcst \u00fcste gerileyerek 11,7 milyar dolara indi. Bu ise Mart 2004’ten beri en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011fere i\u015faret etti.” <\/p>\n
\u00a0“ARALIKTA CAR\u0130 DENGE 1,5 M\u0130LYAR DOLAR A\u00c7IK VEREB\u0130L\u0130R” <\/strong> \u0130thalat alt gruplar\u0131ndan gelen sinyallerin, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar, \u00fcretim ve i\u00e7 talep a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumsuz bir tablo \u00e7izdi\u011fine i\u015faret eden B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, sermaye mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 34,9’la sert darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131n\u0131n ise y\u00fczde 38,5’le \u00fcst \u00fcste 9 ayd\u0131r geriledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, ara mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131n\u0131n ise enerji ve alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flara ra\u011fmen y\u00fczde 24,8’le 7 ayd\u0131r azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkati \u00e7ekerek, \u015funlar\u0131 ifade etti:<\/p>\n “D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k i\u00e7in ocak sinyalleri; alt\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihracat d\u00fc\u015febilir, enerji ithalat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ebilir, alt\u0131n ticaretinde ise baz etkisi lehte? \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131 birliklerinin \u00f6nc\u00fc verilerinden izledi\u011fimiz kadar\u0131yla, Ocak ay\u0131 T\u0130M ihracat\u0131n\u0131n (alt\u0131n hari\u00e7) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda hafif d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (%1 civar\u0131) g\u00f6sterebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrmektedir. Ancak, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f nedeniyle enerji ithalat\u0131n\u0131n olumlu etkisi g\u00f6zlenmeye ba\u015flanabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, alt\u0131n ticareti kaynakl\u0131 baz etkisi (ge\u00e7en y\u0131l net ithalat 2.26 milyar dolar) lehte bulunmaktad\u0131r. Daha net bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 4 \u015eubat’ta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak g\u00fcmr\u00fck verilerinden edinmeyi bekliyoruz. D\u0131\u015f ticaret verisinden sonra, aral\u0131kta cari denge 1,5 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k verebilir diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmekteyiz.” <\/p>\n “ALTIN VE ENERJ\u0130 HAR\u0130\u00c7 DI\u015e A\u00c7IKTAK\u0130 \u0130Y\u0130LE\u015eME CESARET VER\u0130C\u0130” <\/strong> Nisan sonunda 37,4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kan 12 ayl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n, 1,3 milyar dolar seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ayl\u0131k alt\u0131n ve enerji hari\u00e7 ticaret fazlas\u0131yla aral\u0131k sonunda 7,7 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini aktaran Tokal\u0131, 2019’un ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin korunmas\u0131n\u0131 beklediklerini bildirdi. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 55 milyar 16 milyon dolarla son 10 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilerken, alt\u0131n ticaretindeki geli\u015fmeler s\u00f6z konusu iyile\u015fmeyi destekledi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":65,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[58,56,57],"class_list":["post-64","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-altin-destegi","tag-dis-ticaret-acigi","tag-dis-ticaret-acigi-ne-durumda"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/habergunleri.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/habergunleri.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/habergunleri.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/habergunleri.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/habergunleri.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/habergunleri.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/habergunleri.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/65"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/habergunleri.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/habergunleri.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/habergunleri.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Haluk B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n trend de\u011ferinin, dengelenme hareketinin \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayarak, “T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f veriler, trend g\u00f6stergesi olan 3 ayl\u0131k ortalama d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f de\u011ferinin 17,3 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyine iyile\u015fti\u011fini ortaya koyarak, man\u015fet verilerin de yans\u0131tmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dengelenme hareketinin \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu g\u00f6sterge i\u00e7in tarihi zirve ise 111 milyar dolarla 2011’de g\u00f6zlenmi\u015fti.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Halk Yat\u0131r\u0131m Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Banu K\u0131vci Tokal\u0131 ise aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n beklentilerle uyumlu olarak 2,67 milyar dolar seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini belirterek, “B\u00f6ylece y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki yava\u015flama e\u015fli\u011finde ithalatta devam eden y\u0131ll\u0131k azal\u0131\u015f ve alt\u0131n dengesinde iyile\u015fmenin s\u00fcrmesiyle kas\u0131m sonundaki 61,6 milyar dolar seviyesinden 55,0 milyar dolar seviyesine geriledi.” dedi.
Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 cari i\u015flemler dengesine ili\u015fkin ilk tahminlerinin cari dengenin aral\u0131kta 1,5 milyar dolarl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k verebilece\u011fi ve y\u0131ll\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n da kas\u0131mdaki 33,9 milyar dolar seviyesinden 27,7 milyar dolar seviyesine inebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu aktaran Tokal\u0131, \u015funlar\u0131 ifade etti:
“Y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131nda yava\u015flama, alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131nda normalle\u015fme, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyri ve kurdaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n gecikmeli etkileri ile baz etkisine de ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n 2. ve 3. \u00e7eyreklerinde de s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek 40-45 milyar dolar band\u0131na kadar inebilece\u011fini tahmin ediyoruz. Bununla birlikte, b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yeniden dengelenmenin belirginle\u015fmesiyle y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 2019 sonunda tekrar 50-55 milyar dolar band\u0131na y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6te yandan alt\u0131n ticaretinin d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesindeki iyile\u015fmeye deste\u011fi devam etmekte. Il\u0131ml\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 da d\u0131\u015f dengedeki iyile\u015fmeye katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacak.”
Tokal\u0131, alt\u0131n ve enerji hari\u00e7 d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131ktaki iyile\u015fmenin cesaret verici oldu\u011funu vurgulayarak, may\u0131s ay\u0131ndan beri 12 ayl\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek a\u00e7\u0131kta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin korundu\u011funu dile getirdi.<\/p>\n